Soy · 10 September 2026

Anec's September call: Brazilian soy on record pace, soymeal set for annual high

The first Anec (Associação Nacional dos Exportadores de Cereais) monthly forecast for September lands on the firm side of expectations. Brazilian soybean exports are called at 7.74 Mt, roughly 760 kt above September 2025. Soymeal is called at 2.6 Mt — 673 kt above last year — which, if confirmed, would be the highest monthly meal export figure of 2026 and would clear the annual record set in May. Corn is the mirror image, down to 5.2 Mt from nearly 7 Mt a year ago.

September 2026 soy export forecast

7.74 Mt

vs. September 2025

+760 kt YoY

September 2026 soymeal forecast

2.6 Mt

vs. September 2025

+673 kt YoY

September 2026 corn forecast

5.2 Mt

vs. September 2025

−1.8 Mt YoY

YTD 2026 soy exports (through Sep, Anec projection)

~102 Mt

Annual record (2025)

108.68 Mt

What actually drives this

Two forces are pulling in the same direction on soy: a record 2026 crop combined with firm downstream demand. Chinese buyers are absorbing volume aggressively — the CNY strength story from earlier in the year continued into Q3 — and biofuel-driven demand for meal in the EU and Brazil domestically has kept the crush book full through August. Anec closed August at 9.6 Mt of soy shipped and 5 Mt of corn.

On corn, the export bid is being squeezed from three sides at once: Argentine and US supply on the offer side, the domestic Brazilian ethanol grind pulling second-crop volume in-country, and farmers holding back what they do have because the domestic physical market is more attractive than the FOB. That is why 2026 corn exports through September will land near 19.35 Mt — less than half of 2025's full-year 41.59 Mt.

Fontana's read

For anyone with a Q4 book on Brazilian soy: expect premiums to stay firm through November. The line-up at Paranaguá is supporting soymeal FOB premiums specifically, and the concerns Chicago is expressing over the US crop are giving South American FOBs an implicit floor. If you have soy demand for Q4 or Q1 that hasn't been priced, we would not wait for a correction that may not come.

On corn: the opposite trade. Sellers are thin. If you are a buyer of Brazilian corn and you can be flexible on loading window, September and October are your window to step into second-crop supply that isn't finding a home. We are quoting.

What we're watching next

• Whether Anec revises its full-year soy shipment target above the previously projected 110 Mt.
• The pace of Chinese Q4 buying — whether COFCO and Sinograin extend the aggressive July-August lifting into October, or pause.
• Paranaguá loading windows (see our separate note on sugar operations currently competing with grain for slots).